Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
