Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
